Papers and Patents Are Becoming Less Disruptive Over Time

Despite theories that accumulated knowledge should spur major advances in science and technology, a large-scale analysis of research papers and patents over six decades reveals a contrary trend: papers and patents are increasingly less likely to make disruptive breakthroughs. This decline in innovation is not due to changes in the quality of published science or citation practices, but rather suggests a fundamental shift in the nature of science and technology, potentially linked to a narrowing use of previous knowledge.